In trying to justify their dependence on gambling, players often build illusions. That the software in the slot machines can make mistakes. That there's a pattern. That there's a system waiting to be found. The same happens in other kinds of gambling too, betting for example. Here I'll focus on casino software: the slot machines in venues and the online slots, because to a very large extent they're the same product.
“Change your bet and it starts paying”
In the venues where I worked, I heard customers say it countless times: “After this combination, if you change your bet, the machine starts paying.” Everyone had a theory. Change the stake. Wait for a certain symbol. Move to the machine that “hasn't paid for a while”.
Of course, none of it is true. The maths is merciless. It sets, precisely, the share the machine will keep and the money it will pay back to players. That share isn't the same on every machine. But one thing is absolutely certain: every program keeps the share it's been set to keep. Any run of luck, even several wins in a row, is part of the process. Nothing more.
Each spin is decided by a random number generator. The machine doesn't remember the last spin, doesn't “owe” you anything, and doesn't know or care what you bet a minute ago.
So why do players believe otherwise? Because the mind makes connections that lead to the wrong conclusions, and those conclusions turn into beliefs with dangerous results. The player becomes obsessed with the idea that he's beaten the software. Once he's in that state, he can't think clearly: that the maths is right there, doing exactly its job.
Do slot machines ever make mistakes?
Yes, but very rarely. There are real, recorded cases of slot software going wrong, and you may have seen videos of them. Two of the best-known:
- Iowa, 2011. An 87-year-old woman playing a slot machine saw the screen announce a bonus of $41.8 million. The manufacturer had already warned about a rare hardware error. The case went all the way to the Iowa Supreme Court, which ruled in 2015 that she was owed what the game really paid: $1.85.
- New York, 2016. A woman at a casino in Queens took a selfie next to a screen showing $42.9 million. The machine's maximum payout was $6,500. The state Gaming Commission checked the machine's log and called it “clearly a display malfunction”. Her real win was $2.25. The casino offered her a steak dinner.
Notice what these stories have in common. On both machines the same rule was written: “Malfunction voids all pays and plays.” Even when the machine makes a mistake, the mistake doesn't work in your favour.
And these cases are a handful, set against the thousands of programs running this kind of gambling every second. So the player shouldn't have any illusions about the one and only truth: the house always wins. There are no systems and no tricks that let the player win over time. That's an unwritten law.
“If the casino keeps 5%, why did I lose $100?”
Let me answer the big question every player asks. “If the casino keeps, say, 5%, I should lose $5 out of $100. Why did I lose the whole $100?”
It's a fair thought. But look at the trap now, my friend, and why the maths is telling you the truth. On average, the machine gives you back $95. But you don't leave. You keep playing. The $5 is already gone, for good. The casino has done its job.
So the game starts again, on new terms: $95. This time the casino keeps $4.75 of it. Then 5% of what's left. And so the story goes on:
- After playing it through once: $95 left
- After 5 times: $77
- After 10 times: $60
- After 20 times: $36
- After 50 times: less than $8
That's why time is always on the casino's side. From every round it keeps its share of your money, and the more is played, the more it earns. In a venue with $60,000 played over an eight-hour shift, 5% is $3,000 in the casino's pocket.
That's why the player almost always leaves with big losses. And 5% is a modest example. Many machines keep more.
One truth that doesn't change
So the point is one, and it doesn't change: the casino, the small venues, any software or program, is set up so that only it wins over time. Gambling makes the people who run it happy. Not the people who play.
Gambling tells you the truth. And the truth is one word: loss. The good news is that once you've really heard it, you don't need to test it again. You can stop looking for the system, because now you know there isn't one.
